Hugo Award Prediction Results

Results of the award predictions.

Well, I only hit 52-53% correct in my predictions (though I did hit 80% in the lit categories and 75% in the fan categories…).

Sad Puppies successfully recommended 47% of the winners.

Rabid Puppies successfully recommended 41% of the winners.

Now we all knew that the Rabid ones were going to claim even one successful pick as a victory, considering that they thought last year’s No Award landslide was a victory, despite the fact that it was the  2015 and not the 1984 Hugo Awards…so whatever they claim out of this year is really meaningless.

What I do think has a bit of signifigance is:  neither puppy slate managed to get above half the picks, while I did, basing mine not on a political agenda, but rather experiences with Fandom.

In other words, the negative outlook on things lost and the positive outlook won, if you want to put it that way.

But now here is the really interesting thing:  In those categories that I did not predict correctly, my prediction was the runner up through the entirety of the vote count, with one exception (Short Story);  No Award was the 2nd runner up.

You can see the tallies here: In all of the others, Best Graphic, Dramatic: Long Form and Short Form, Best Editor: Long Form and Short Form, Professional Artist, my picks came in second.

It doesn’t really mean anything other than I was pretty damn close throughout the categories, picking first or second in all but one!

I’ll take it.

The really interesting conclusion to be had from the stats is that the voters really honed in on quality in those categories where they had to choose among puppy pics – zeroed right in on the quality works, ignoring the shield effect and sending a very clear message that political shenanigans will not be allowed to negatively affect the Hugo Awards.

I don’t know what happened at GRRM’s Loser’s Party last night, but he sure had fewer awards to give out this year than last!

Congrats to ALL the winners and the Finalists!

And thanks to the MidAmericon2 crew for an excellent broadcast (even if the comment feed was littered with garbage).

Lets see how everyone else did:

THE FINALISTS ACTUAL WINNER SAD PUPPY NOMINEE RABID PUPPY NOMINEE MY PICKS
Results  100%  8/17  7/17  9/17
BEST NOVEL (3695 ballots)
Ancillary Mercy  by Ann Leckie (Orbit) X*
The Cinder Spires: The Aeronaut’s Windlass  by Jim Butcher (Roc) X X
The Fifth Season  by N.K. Jemisin (Orbit)  X     The Fifth Season  by N.K. Jemisin (Orbit)
Seveneves: A Novel  by Neal Stephenson (William Morrow) X X
Uprooted  by Naomi Novik (Del Rey) X
No Award
BEST NOVELLA (2416 ballots)
Binti  by Nnedi Okorafor (Tor.com)  X X   Binti  by Nnedi Okorafor (Tor.com)
The Builders  by Daniel Polansky (Tor.com) X X
Penric’s Demon  by Lois McMaster Bujold (Spectrum) X* X
Perfect State  by Brandon Sanderson (Dragonsteel Entertainment) X X
Slow Bullets  by Alastair Reynolds (Tachyon) X* X
No Award
BEST NOVELETTE (1975 ballots)
“And You Shall Know Her by the Trail of Dead”  by Brooke Bolander (Lightspeed, Feb2015) X
“Flashpoint: Titan”  by CHEAH Kai Wai (There Will Be War Volume X, Castalia House) X
“Folding Beijing”  by Hao Jingfang, trans. Ken Liu (Uncanny Magazine, Jan-Feb 2015)  X X X “Folding Beijing”  by Hao Jingfang, trans. Ken Liu (Uncanny Magazine, Jan-Feb 2015)
“Obits”  by Stephen King (The Bazaar of Bad Dreams, Scribner) X X
“What Price Humanity?”  by David VanDyke (There Will Be War Volume X, Castalia House) X
No Award
BEST SHORT STORY (2451 ballots)
“Asymmetrical Warfare”  by S. R. Algernon (Nature, Mar 2015) X X
“Cat Pictures Please”  by  Naomi Kritzer (Clarkesworld, January 2015)  X X X
“If You Were an Award, My Love”  by Juan Tabo and S. Harris (voxday.blogspot.com, Jun 2015) X
“Seven Kill Tiger”  by Charles Shao (There Will Be War Volume X, Castalia House) X
Space Raptor Butt Invasion  by Chuck Tingle (Amazon Digital Services) X Space Raptor Butt Invasion  by Chuck Tingle (Amazon Digital Services)
No Award
BEST RELATED WORK (2080 ballots)
Between Light and Shadow: An Exploration of the Fiction of Gene Wolfe, 1951 to 1986 by Marc Aramini (Castalia House) X
“The First Draft of My Appendix N Book”  by Jeffro Johnson (jeffro.wordpress.com) X X
“Safe Space as Rape Room”  by Daniel Eness (castaliahouse.com) X X
SJWs Always Lie: Taking Down the Thought Police  by Vox Day (Castalia House) X
“The Story of Moira Greyland”  by Moira Greyland (askthebigot.com) X
No Award  X     No Award
BEST GRAPHIC STORY (1838 ballots)
The Divine  written by Boaz Lavie, art by Asaf Hanuka and Tomer Hanuka (First Second) X
Erin Dies Alone  written by Grey Carter, art by Cory Rydell (dyingalone.net) X
Full Frontal Nerdity  by Aaron Williams (ffn.nodwick.com) X
Invisible Republic Vol 1  written by Corinna Bechko and Gabriel Hardman, art by Gabriel Hardman (Image Comics) X
The Sandman: Overture  written by Neil Gaiman, art by J.H. Williams III (Vertigo)  X   X
No Award No Award
BEST DRAMATIC PRESENTATION (LONG FORM) (2904 ballots)
Avengers: Age of Ultron  written and directed by Joss Whedon (Marvel Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures) X
Ex Machina  written and directed by Alex Garland (Film4; DNA Films; Universal Pictures) X
Mad Max: Fury Road  written by George Miller, Brendan McCarthy, and Nico Lathouris, directed by George Miller (Village Roadshow Pictures; Kennedy Miller Mitchell; RatPac-Dune Entertainment; Warner Bros. Pictures) X Mad Max: Fury Road  written by George Miller, Brendan McCarthy, and Nico Lathouris, directed by George Miller (Village Roadshow Pictures; Kennedy Miller Mitchell; RatPac-Dune Entertainment; Warner Bros. Pictures)
The Martian  screenplay by Drew Goddard, directed by Ridley Scott (Scott Free Productions; Kinberg Genre; TSG Entertainment; 20th Century Fox)  X X X
Star Wars: The Force Awakens  written by Lawrence Kasdan, J. J. Abrams, and Michael Arndt, directed by J.J. Abrams (Lucasfilm Ltd.; Bad Robot Productions; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures) X
No Award
BEST DRAMATIC PRESENTATION (SHORT FORM) (2219 ballots)
Doctor Who:  “Heaven Sent”  written by Steven Moffat, directed by Rachel Talalay (BBC Television) X Doctor Who:  “Heaven Sent”  written by Steven Moffat, directed by Rachel Talalay (BBC Television)
Grimm:  “Headache”  written by Jim Kouf and David Greenwalt, directed by Jim Kouf(Universal Television; GK Productions; Hazy Mills Productions; Open 4 Business Productions; NBCUniversal Television Distribution) X
Jessica Jones:  “AKA Smile”  written by Scott Reynolds, Melissa Rosenberg, and Jamie King, directed by Michael Rymer (Marvel Television; ABC Studios; Tall Girls Productions;Netflix)  X
My Little Pony: Friendship Is Magic:  “The Cutie Map” Parts 1 and 2  written by Scott Sonneborn, M.A. Larson, and Meghan McCarthy, directed by Jayson Thiessen and Jim Miller (DHX Media/Vancouver; Hasbro Studios) X X
Supernatural:  “Just My Imagination”  written by Jenny Klein, directed by Richard Speight Jr. (Kripke Enterprises; Wonderland Sound and Vision; Warner Bros. Television) X
No Award
BEST EDITOR – SHORT FORM (1891 ballots)
John Joseph Adams X
Neil Clarke Neil Clarke
Ellen Datlow X
Jerry Pournelle X X
Sheila Williams
No Award
BEST EDITOR – LONG FORM (1764 ballots)
Vox Day X
Sheila E. Gilbert  X
Liz Gorinsky Liz Gorinsky
Jim Minz X X
Toni Weisskopf X X
No Award
BEST PROFESSIONAL ARTIST (1481 ballots)
Lars Braad Andersen X
Larry Elmore X X
Abigail Larson  X X X
Michal Karcz X
Larry Rostant X
No Award No Award
BEST SEMIPROZINE (1457 ballots)
Beneath Ceaseless Skies  edited by Scott H. Andrews X
Daily Science Fiction  edited by Michele-Lee Barasso and Jonathan Laden X
Sci Phi Journal  edited by Jason Rennie X X
Strange Horizons  edited by Catherine Krahe, Julia Rios, A. J. Odasso, Vanessa Rose Phin,Maureen Kincaid Speller, and the Strange Horizons staff X
Uncanny Magazine  edited by Lynne M. Thomas & Michael Damian Thomas, Michi Trota, and Erika Ensign & Steven Schapansky  X     Uncanny Magazine  edited by Lynne M. Thomas & Michael Damian Thomas, Michi Trota, and Erika Ensign & Steven Schapansky
No Award
BEST FANZINE (1455 ballots)
Castalia House Blog  edited by Jeffro Johnson X
File 770  edited by Mike Glyer  X X* X File 770  edited by Mike Glyer
Lady Business  edited by Clare, Ira, Jodie, KJ, Renay, and Susan X
Superversive SF  edited by Jason Rennie X X
Tangent Online  edited by Dave Truesdale X X
No Award
BEST FANCAST (1267 ballots)
8-4 Play, Mark MacDonald, John Ricciardi, Hiroko Minamoto, and Justin Epperson X
Cane and Rinse, Cane and Rinse X
HelloGreedo, HelloGreedo X X
The Rageaholic, RazörFist X
Tales to Terrify, Stephen Kilpatrick X* Tales to Terrify, Stephen Kilpatrick
No Award  X
BEST FAN WRITER (1568 ballots)
Douglas Ernst X
Mike Glyer  X X*   Mike Glyer
Morgan Holmes X
Jeffro Johnson X X
Shamus Young X
No Award
BEST FAN ARTIST (1073 ballots)
Matthew Callahan X X
disse86 X
Kukuruyo X
Christian Quinot X
Steve Stiles  X     Steve Stiles
No Award
JOHN W. CAMPBELL AWARD FOR BEST NEW WRITER (1922 ballots)
Pierce Brown * X
Sebastien de Castell * X X
Brian Niemeier X X
Andy Weir *  X X X Andy Weir *
Alyssa Wong * X
No Award

 

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